Threat of a Single Prospective Session

Remember the good old days, where companies fitted with a solid business model would focus on improving their competitive barriers to entry to confirm their leadership and remain unchallenged on a specific market. Everyone agrees that this game is over, as innovation and disruption threaten the most solid business models.

As a response to the challenge of remaining competitive over time, an organization must nowadays exercise its agility to move swiftly within the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) of its environment. Major changes in society, especially the impact on the environment is combined with evolutions from the competition, technology, regulation, labor markets, or financial evolutions, only to name a few. Deep uncertainty is surrounding the predicted near future of the organization. The most resilient ones learn to expect the unexpected with Prospective Sessions driven by external consultants. The Prospective work prepares to take advantage of unforeseen opportunities that emerge beyond prediction and common risk-assessment methodologies.

Resistance to Prospective

The odds are that a predictable evolution of the environment is covered, at the best, by regular KPI reviews, audits, and by careful understanding of market analysis and trends. While the management of an organization manages to strategize the predicted future, staying away from the unforeseen is a dangerous bet. An unforeseen event has the capacity, at any time, to impact the resilience and sustainability of the organization, if not to completely disrupt its value. It is the responsibility of the Governance of an organization to carry Prospective Sessions.

The Nokia case

The case of Nokia is often cited as an example of how change and unexpected competition has the ability to ruin a solid growth strategy. In the early 2000’s Nokia was the undisputed worldwide mobile phone leader, cranking 1 Million phones per day out of their production facilities, accounting for 70% of Helsinki’s stock exchange. They were constantly anticipating the future. But at some point their anticipation scenarios remained focused on implementing the Symbian operating system and forcing Near Field Communication (NFC), both with uncertain business models. This strong focus prevented Nokia’s governance to perceive the radical change driven by outsiders, Apple and Samsung, who were not active in this segment. The Prospective work remained stuck around specific scenarios, which became detrimental to the organization. The historical and cultural bias took over the organization’s dedication to update its Prospective scenarios.

Prospective is decisive to ensure strategic resilience of an organization. It’s not an option. The option may be considered whether appropriate to carry purely internal sessions, or have these sessions driven by external consultants. The benefit of driving those sessions by external professionals is multiple:

- Unbiased view of the organization,

- Updates with the most appropriate toolset,

- Knowledge of industry trends,

- Diversity brought to the organization.

Regularly updating the Prospective analysis is a way to move forward, catching up with the uncertainties. Scenarios are anticipated, roadmaps are prepared, bearing in mind that most of them will be left over, forever. But it’s not a wasted time and effort, that’s part of the strategy.